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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Monday that India is likely to experience above-normal rainfall during the upcoming monsoon season in 2024. This forecast comes with the expectation of La Nina conditions developing by August-September, potentially impacting rainfall patterns across the country.
Above-Normal Rainfall: IMD forecasts above-normal cumulative rainfall during the four-month monsoon season from June to September. The estimated rainfall is expected to be around 106 percent of the long-period average, which stands at 87 cm.
Favorable Conditions: Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are predicted during the monsoon season, along with low snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. These factors are conducive to a robust southwest monsoon in India.
El Nino Impact: While moderate El Nino conditions are currently prevailing, IMD anticipates a transition to neutral conditions as the monsoon season approaches. Subsequently, La Nina conditions may emerge by August-September, further influencing rainfall patterns.
Changing Rainfall Patterns: Climate scientists note a trend of decreasing rainy days accompanied by an increase in heavy rainfall events. This variability contributes to more frequent occurrences of droughts and floods, emphasizing the importance of adaptive measures in agriculture and water management.
Historical Trends: Analysis of data from 1951-2023 reveals that India experienced above-normal rainfall in the monsoon season on nine occasions following an El Nino event, highlighting the significance of understanding large-scale climatic phenomena for accurate forecasting.
Impact on Agriculture and Economy
Critical for Agriculture: The southwest monsoon provides about 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall, crucial for agricultural activities. Given that agriculture contributes significantly to the country’s GDP, the monsoon outlook holds substantial economic implications.
Mitigating El Nino Effects: El Nino conditions, characterized by warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean, typically result in weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India. However, IMD’s forecast accounts for multiple climatic factors to provide a comprehensive outlook.
