Between June and September, India’s southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is expected to be normal, with 96 to 104 percent of the long period average (LPA), according to the India Meteorological Department. According to sources, India got normal rainfall during the four-month southwest monsoon season in 2019, 2020, and 2021, making this the fourth year in a row that the country has received normal seasonal rainfall.
The India Meteorological Department further stated that the rainfall will be generally evenly distributed, noting, “normal to above normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many areas of northern parts of Peninsular India and adjoining Central India, over foothills of Himalayas and some parts of Northwest India.”
IMD said, “below normal rainfall is likely over many areas of Northeast India, some areas of Northwest India and southern parts of the South Peninsula. White shaded areas within the land area represent climatological probabilities.”
The the state-run weather office has additionally notified that, “quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 99% of the LPA with model error of ± 5%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.”
The rainfall is expected to be mostly uniformly distributed (Fig.1). Normal to above normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many areas of northern parts of Peninsular India and adjoining Central India, over foothills of Himalayas and some parts of Northwest India.
— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) April 14, 2022
With regular monsoon rains expected this year, India’s agriculture and overall economic prospects are anticipated to improve. The state-run India Meteorological Department stated in a statement that monsoon rainfall will be 99 percent of the long-term average.
According to a Reuters story, New Delhi defines typical, or normal, rainfall as between 96 and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 87 centimetres (35 inches) for the four-month season beginning in June. The monsoon is critical for India’s $2.7 billion economy since it provides approximately 70% of the rain required by agriculture while also refilling reservoirs and aquifers.
In a similar event, the IMD is expected to provide an updated monsoon season projection by the end of May. La Nia conditions in the equatorial Pacific are expected to persist over the monsoon season, according to the report.
In addition, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are expected to persist across the Indian Ocean until the start of the southwest monsoon season. Following then, an increased likelihood of a bad IOD state is anticipated, according to
The Indian Ocean Dipole, commonly known as the Indian Nino, is an irregular oscillation in sea-surface temperature in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and colder than the eastern Indian Ocean.