Lucknow: One of the worst hit state in the pandemic, Uttar Pradesh, is believed to have crossed the peak of the coronavirus cases in the second wave as per an estimate formulated by government officials and experts monitoring the pandemic situation in the state.
“The number of new cases reported in the last 24 hours is 28,076 which is almost 10,000 less than the peak of 38,055,” said principal secretary, medical education, Alok Kumar-II, adding that the number of active infections has also gone down to 2.5 lakh. “The peak of active cases was 3.1 lakh,” Kumar said.
Talking about the peak of a pandemic, social scientist and epidemiologist Aarti Kumar said: “While there is no official definition of a ‘peak’, it may be seen as the topmost point of a pandemic curve from where a disease proceeds towards a plateau and then starts falling. It may not be sharp or smooth… it can be intermittent having smaller highs and lows which usually remain below the pinnacle.”
Speaking of Covid-19 trend, data analysts and statistical modelling specialists over the world use new cases and active cases as a tool to determine the peak of a pandemic. A decline in these two counts is seen as an indicator that suggests that the peak has passed and, according to officials, the data suggests so.
The maximum number of daily cases in UP (38,055) were reported on April 24 and have reportedly been declining since then. Likewise, the highest number of active cases in the state (3,10,783) was recorded on April 30 after which it has been showing a downward trend.
The rate of positive cases, or the number of people testing positive among those tested, is also a crucial indicator to show that the peak has passed. Acknowledging the trend, secretary to CM Yogi Adityanath, Alok Kumar-III, who is monitoring the growth pattern of the pandemic, said: “State’s CPR has come down by almost five percentage points over the past one and a half weeks which is a good sign.”
According to officials, data from the state health department proves the point as the state’s CPR has gone down from 24.1% during April 21-27 to 18.8% between April 28 and May 4. CPR of private labs may also be used to gauge the trend. A pilot assessment in Lucknow indicated that CPR in private labs has gone down from about 76% in mid-April to 38% now.
Meanwhile, districts like Lucknow, Kanpur, Varanasi and Prayagraj, where Covid-19 pandemic wreaked havoc, have also seen a decline in number of positive cases.
“The peak may have come down only because of an all-out attack on the virus. The strategy includes aggressive testing, restrictions, mass sensitisation and cleanliness. Individual contribution to control the virus through adherence of Covid-19 prevention protocol remains the key to save people from suffering. Therefore, no one should drop the guard,” said Dr PK Gupta of the state’s chapter of Indian Medical Association.