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New Delhi: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has once again dismissed all apprehensions about the monsoon and has predicted normal rainfall in its second forecast as well. Despite the effect of El Nino, there can be 96-104 percent rainfall between June and September.
According to the report, this condition of monsoon is favorable for agriculture and the economic system of the country. However, there is a possibility of high temperature and less rainfall in June. But during the entire monsoon, rainfall may be above normal in central and northeast India and deficient in southwest India. The pre-estimated date of onset of monsoon over Kerala coast is likely to remain around June 4. This is the fifth time in a row that the monsoon will be normal in the country.
IMD Environment Monitoring and Research Center (EMRC) head D. Shivanand Pai said in a press conference on Friday that due to the warming of the Pacific Ocean, the effect of El Nino cannot be ruled out. Its danger still remains. Between June and September, the country receives rainfall due to the monsoon for about four months.
He said that it is a matter of relief for the farmers that there are chances of good rains in the rain-fed agriculture areas. With this record production of Kharif crops can be expected. The market can also get its benefit. The rural economy can also get a boost.
According to the information, two days ago, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had expressed apprehension of rise in inflation due to El Nino, but now this danger seems to be averted due to good rains. This assessment has been done on the basis of average rainfall between 1977 and 2020. The average rainfall figure over the years has been 87 cm. This time there may be a margin of error of up to 4 per cent in the estimate.
Earlier, the Meteorological Department had issued the first estimate of monsoon rainfall on 11 April. Normal rainfall was also assessed in that. Now the third forecast will be issued in June, in which the amount of rainfall will be predicted for July and subsequent months. During this, the effect of El Nino can also be estimated.
El Nino is a climate pattern. This reflects unusually warm conditions of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is associated with the weakening of monsoon winds and less rainfall in India. El Nino causes warming temperatures.
